With Probst’s Announcement, the Campaigns Get More Interesting

by lewwaters

Now that we see 17th Legislative District Representative Tim Probst feeling he is ready to tackle and entrenched incumbent for a State Senate seat, his seat in the House will be an open seat that the Democrats surely will want to retain with another person. Should Tim lose the Senate race, which is likely, he will not be allowed to just return to his House seat.

The 17th now has a Republican Senator, Don Benton who has won the seat 4 times now and Paul Harris, also a Republican holding down position 2, running for a second term.

Republicans have Mike Appel and Julie Olson, both of whom announced their intent to run against Probst prior to his coming out on his bid against Benton.

Knowing that the Democrats will not want to lose the seat held now by Probst, it would be expected that they recruit a strong candidate to run in his place. All indications at this time is that is not what they have planned and are trying to recruit Monica Stonier, who lost to Republican Paul Harris in the 2010 elections by nearly 7 percentage points and who we last heard of, was trying to relocate her residence to qualify to try to be appointed to replace Democrat Jim Jacks, who abruptly abandoned constituents due to scandal in 2011 in the 49th Legislative District.

The Columbian endorsed her campaign in the 2010 General Election, but did not in the primary election that year citing they “were — and remain — worried about her close ties to the teachers union.” She still lost.

Paul Harris is facing an unknown, first time candidate Jim Gizzi has signed on to oppose him for the Democrats. So far Gizzi only has a facebook page up that I have found and where he claims his intent in running is, “Fighting for a vibrant economy. Championing local schools. Ensuring fiscal accountability.” He currently is a commissioner on the Clark County Planning Commission.

When haven’t we heard that from a Democrat? And, when have we ever seen them deliver it?

The 17th very likely may revert back to all Republican, given the dismal performance we have seen over the last few years from Democrats who have held a stranglehold on Olympia for so long.

I find somewhat comical that Democrat challenger for County Commission, Joe Tanner is beginning to act as if he has already won Tom Mielke’s seat on the commission. For all of his boasting of being “conservative,” he betrays himself by trying to unseat the only conservative on the commission currently as well as his support for the CRC and Portland’s financially failing light rail being dragged over to our community.

We cannot ignore his claim of being “a top executive with Drypers Corp” during a time the company began sending jobs overseas and faced bankruptcy just prior to his leaving.

I would caution Mr. Tanner though. He boasts of being an “active duty Vietnam Veteran who received numerous combat medals” on his campaign page. I will be expecting to see just what “combat medals” Mr. Tanner received since his announcement in the Columbian states of his “serving in the U.S. Navy from 1966 to 1970 as an electronics technician, including 27 months in Vietnam.”

As a boots on the ground Vietnam Veteran myself, I get sort of sensitive when I read of sailors in non-combatant positions claim receiving “numerous combat medals.”

As I have said of others running, if they run on their Military Service, we have the right to know the nature of that service and deserve to see claims they make supported.

We also see Democrat Ron Barca announcing to oppose Commissioner Mielke. Strange how both he and Tanner run as Democrats, but wish to appear a conservatives, both trying to replace the only conservative sitting on the county commission.

Barca even goes as far as to quote Republican President, Dwight D. Eisenhower on his campaign page.

So far in the 18th Legislative District, we see Republicans Liz Pike and Dale Smith announcing to replace Republican Ed Orcutt, who is being districted out after the redistricting.

So far I have not seen or heard of a Democrat announcing a run in the 18th Legislative District.

Likewise, I have not heard of any Republican announcing to run for the seat being left Democrat State Senator Craig Pridemore in the 49th Legislative District. So far, only Democrat Annette Cleveland of Vancouver seems interested.

For right now though, the 17th Legislative District is what appears will be the most interesting contest, at least for a little while.

10 Comments to “With Probst’s Announcement, the Campaigns Get More Interesting”

  1. This is an outstanding opportunity to make the Columbia Crossing Project, Loot Rail and Bus Loot Rail the top three campaign issues of this race and make both of these two answer questions about all of those projects and how to pay for them at every opportunity. Make Probst come out an make a stand about how he thinks Washington and Oregon need to come up with the $600 milliion in cash they both need to kick in just to start things off, and make Benton cough up some alternate plan that is feasable.

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  2. The 17th does appear lost to the Democrats for the near future. I plan to run there again but first I need to find more Liberal constituents among the socialists and Progressives/Marxists.

    FYI – Republicans needn’t attack Liberals – there aren’t really that many around – grass roots Dems have gone far Left.

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  3. Martin, can you enlighten us? How, exactly, is the “17th lost to the democrats?”

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  4. Demographics. It looks more like the 18th than the 49th and it runs a weak slate of candidates (public employee union types). That’s why Probst loss will be felt. If Probst was running against a candiate other than Benton, he would surely win.

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  5. I too am wondering why no repubican, conservative has stepped up. I have looked at the demographics of area and I think a well thought out conservative campaign could take the 49th. You really only have a pocket of truly concentrated democrats mostly gathered together in the downtown area.Otherwise collect all the votes on the perimeter, pick off the fence sitters downtown and…..you’d have a conservative in the 49th.

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  6. I don’t know, John, I thought Craig Riley was a very strong candidate and look how his campaign turned out.

    Surely Republicans in the 49th can’t be that complacent.

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  7. If Craig Riley couldn’t win against a Portland newcomer, no R can win.

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  8. No doubt the 49th is a very tough nut for the GOP to crack.

    Lucky me, I’m in the 49th 😦

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  9. I too am in the 49th. How about you running Lew? I’d move to get away from the far lefties but the real answer is to convert or bring more conservative minded people into the neighborhood. I’ll campaign for ya!

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  10. Lew, Carolyn & others – Yes, I am also in the 49th state LD. How many want to guess of the posters here ARE here are in the same LD? I know a few of the regulars are not, but I bet a bigger percentage ARE.

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